In 2024, the University of Cape Town actively contributed to strengthening local and regional government capacity for climate-related disaster risk monitoring, early warning and adaptation planning. Guided by its Vision 2030 commitment to “unleashing human potential to create a fair and just society”, UCT worked through key research hubs — including the Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG) and the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI) — to provide scientific evidence, data tools, and practitioner training directly supporting municipal and provincial decision-making. CSAG researchers collaborated with the City of Cape Town and other regional stakeholders to interpret climate projections for water security, drought risk, and heatwave preparedness, while also delivering short courses such as the 2024 “Navigating Climate Risk” programme and the CONFER Climate Risk Training School to equip local officials, planners, and practitioners with the skills to use climate data for early warning and disaster preparedness. Through these initiatives, UCT demonstrated its commitment to turning climate science into actionable intelligence that empowers local and regional governments to anticipate, monitor, and mitigate climate risks across southern Africa.

Below are some examples of this work in 2024.

Weather-related hazards pose R20-billion risk to City of Cape Town’s transport infrastructure

Severe weather events, including coastal flooding and fires, pose a significant threat to the City of Cape Town’s (CoCT) transport infrastructure, with an estimated value of R20 billion, according to a recent analysis by researchers at the University of Cape Town (UCT). The study, published in the Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, conducted by Dr Tanya Lane-Visser and Professor Marianne Vanderschuren of the UCT Centre of Transport Studies, quantified the volume of infrastructure at risk and assessed the economic implications.

This 2024 study provided government / local authorities (City of Cape Town) with economic risk estimates (R20 billion), mapping of high-risk infrastructure, which helps in prioritising which infrastructure to climate-proof, where to build resilience, where to allocate funds / plan adaptation

The analysis highlighted the direct and indirect vulnerabilities of transportation to weather and climate impacts, encompassing physical infrastructure, human health, behaviour, and decision-making. The key climate change challenges identified for the city include decreased annual average rainfall, increased temperatures, higher wind strength, intensified storms, and rising sea levels.

A geographic information system (GIS) was employed to calculate the quantum of transport infrastructure at risk, focusing on passenger transport within the city limits. The results indicated that 24% of all roads, 52.6% of moderately sized taxi ranks, and significant portions of MyCiti and Golden Arrow Bus Services (GABS) stops and stations are in high-risk zones.

In addition to the overall analysis, three specific climate-related hazards – coastal flooding, flooding of low-lying areas, and fire vulnerability – were individually modelled. The findings revealed that adverse weather conditions could disrupt almost a third of taxi routes, impact 15% of the MyCiti network, and pose a threat to suburbs served by GABS.

The potential socio-economic impacts of climate-related hazards are staggering, with 79.6% of Capetonians residing in high-risk areas. Employment levels are highly correlated, with adverse weather potentially impacting 50% to 80% of the city’s labour force. Furthermore, 15.2% of schools and 28.8% of healthcare facilities are in high-exposure areas, highlighting potential disruptions to education and healthcare services.

Estimates suggest that road infrastructure damage alone in high-exposure areas could range from R4.6 billion to R12.1 billion. Professor Vanderschuren, South Africa’s leading transport expert, emphasized coastal flooding as the greatest hazard for the MyCiti bus rapid transit, putting R3.26 billion worth of infrastructure at risk.

To address these challenges, the researchers propose prudent governance tasks, including proofing and maintaining infrastructure, investing in fire safety protocols, and developing disaster response plans. Spatial planning cognizant of weather-related hazards is crucial to reducing climate-related risks to transport infrastructure. The study’s outputs can aid the CoCT in identifying and developing custom mitigation plans for critical infrastructure elements.

As Cape Town faces the growing threat of climate change, the findings underscore the importance of proactive measures and strategic planning to safeguard the city’s vital transport infrastructure and ensure the well-being of its residents.

Facilitating peer-to-peer learning to build climate resilience to floods and droughts

Climate change poses an increasing risk to cities as hubs of social and economic activity. In recent years, this has been observed in the aftermath of extreme weather events resulting in the loss of human lives, damage of ecosystems, infrastructure and economic losses. This has highlighted the inability of cities to effectively respond to these shocks. Climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ is most likely to display more severe impacts when climatic events interact with other social, economic and environmental pressures, overburdening already strained urban systems. It has also become evident that those who have contributed least to climate change are most likely to be adversely affected by its impacts. These disruptions can cause severe setbacks in the growth and development of any country, particularly so for an emerging economy such as South Africa.

In responding to the collective effort demanded by climate change, the European Union (EU) (within the scope of the EU Climate Dialogues Programme), in partnership with the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) has engaged GroundTruth and partners to design and facilitate peer-to-peer learning for cities across South Africa and the EU. The aim of this series of engagements is to provide a knowledge sharing, learning and support platform to better advance efforts through the various tiers of government. It is envisaged that outcomes of this engagement will support the PCC efforts in: building climate resilience and adaptive capacity in responding to risk and vulnerability; promoting the integration of adaptation response into development objectives, policy, planning and implementation; improving the understanding of climate change impacts and overall response capacity; and ensuring appropriate resources and systems are in place to effectively respond to climate change.

Having led the development of the climate-resilient development pathways guidance for the PCC, researchers at UCT are inputting to the design and development of the learning journey and associated materials on building resilience to floods and drought in eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay through a pathways approach.

The project involves designing and convening hybrid knowledge exchanges for two adaptation challenges (floods and droughts) at the local level and a third exchange to bring in international actors on the joint subject of the two adaptation challenges. The knowledge exchanges will be facilitated on the basis of existing case studies from Europe and South Africa, followed by a comprehensive report of recommendations on the subject of building resilience to droughts and floods at the end of the exchange process.

A background paper and learning materials will be prepared as inputs to the exchanges, to enhance the understanding of climate adaptation and resilience at the national and sub-national (municipal) level in key South African cities and towns regarding the Just Urban Transition (JUT). The materials and exchanges are designed to build intra-municipality alliances as well as partnerships around the JUT in and between South Africa and EU countries.

This work is led by Dr Anna Taylor (ACDI) and Alice McClure (UCT’s Climate Systems Analysis Group)

In March 2024, UCT’s Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG) opened applications for its annual Short Course on Navigating Climate Risk, designed to build the capacity of municipal planners, environmental officers, and policy practitioners to interpret and apply climate data in early warning and disaster-risk management systems. Later that year, from 2–6 September 2024, CSAG co-hosted the CONFER Climate Risk Training School, an intensive regional workshop for professionals across southern and eastern Africa focusing on early-warning interpretation, drought monitoring, and adaptive decision-making.

In parallel, the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI) was selected in April 2024 to host the first African Climate Change Synthesis Centre, tasked with synthesising evidence on climate impacts and supporting policy dialogues with local and regional governments.

Complementing these activities, UCT climate scientists collaborated with the City of Cape Town on data sharing and risk communication through ongoing water-security and heat-risk projects, while the Green Campus Initiative convened a Climate Change and Health Seminar on 23 April 2024, broadening local understanding of climate-related health hazards and adaptation responses.

Collectively, these 2024 initiatives illustrate UCT’s applied, government-focused approach to climate-risk education, monitoring, and early-warning capacity-building in the region.

Climate Campaigners mobile app

Climate Campaigners – a free mobile app which offers a range of sustainability-based lifestyle changes which can help Capetonians take climate action - was launched by the City of Cape Town, in partnership with the University of Cape Town (UCT) and funded by the European Union.

These lifestyle changes will enable residents to contribute to achieving the City’s commitments of climate-resilience and carbon-neutrality by 2050.

Cape Town's 2050 vision

"The City‘s 2050 vision for Cape Town is a climate-resilient, resource-efficient and carbon-neutral city that enables inclusive economic development and healthy, thriving communities and ecosystems. To reach our climate targets we need the support of all in Cape Town. Small actions can have a big impact if we act together.

Every Cape Town resident is encouraged to become a Climate Campaigner. With the Climate Campaigners app, everyone can do something towards creating a sustainable future.

The Climate Campaigners app is a community-based platform which aims to inspire Capetonians to choose Challenges that can help their communities, while also reducing their emissions. These exciting Challenges include saving water and energy, smarter mobility and environmentally-friendly consumption. The app offers tips and inspiration, while tracking and analysing users’ CO2 savings – in detail and in real time. It also provides a community of like-minded Campaigners; to network, share experiences and cheer each other on.

‘The project is being grounded in science right from the outset. It will provide important anonymised data and findings that can serve as a foundation for policy recommendations for climate action. Let’s act to break habits that waste energy and water. Let’s act for a healthier, more resilient city, and have fun doing it. Join in and Let’s ACT for a stronger Cape Town," said the City’s Mayoral Committee Member for Energy, Councillor Beverley van Reenen, who was at the launch event earlier today.

Initial International rollout of Climate Campaigners

Cape Town is joined by 13 other cities around the world as part of the initial rollout of Climate Campaigners, including Milan, Italy; Dublin, Ireland and La Libertad, El Salvador, each with unique Challenges, tailored to the city’s needs. The project aims to scale up the number of cities involved, and is scheduled to run for two years.

‘Climate Campaigners hopes to help people follow through on their best climate intentions by providing an app to challenge themselves and see how they follow through on those climate actions. We also hope to introduce people to new, highly accessible, behaviours that they may not have considered, but which will help them achieve the climate impact they want to achieve, in their daily lives.

‘In the end, it is everyday people, like you and me, who can impact climate change by taking these small actions in our lives. Small changes add up over hundreds, thousands, millions of people,’ said Grant Smith, Senior Research Officer in the Energy Systems Research Group at UCT.